20 July 2011

The Gambia: Independent Electoral Commission’s fuzzy math and impossible numbers

By Mathew K Jallow
As the elections of 2011 draw near, speculations about the credibility of the voter register dominate the political debate, casting doubt on the entire electoral process. At issue is the possible registration of minors and non-citizens, which has created the inflated number registered voters in this election cycle. The number of voters registered for the 2011 election season does not support the approximate birth and deaths rates evidence. In these elections, the IEC announced the registration of a total of 869,000 voters, which is an increase of 199, 000 new voters from the 670,000 registered in the 2006 elections. This increase represents a 3.3% population increase, which is higher than the 2.5% birth rate or population increase rate over the past several census cycles. Apart from that, the year’s number of registered voters assumes of that everyone born in 1988 and 1993 is alive, and eligible to vote for the first time in 2011 elections.  Gambians born in 1988 were 17 years in 2006 and were not eligible to cast ballots in that year’s elections, but would be only eligible to vote in 2011 when they would turn 22 years, and those born in 1993 would be eligible to vote this year the year they will turn 18 years.  At a 2.5% annual birth rate, The Gambia would have had approximately 93,995 new born babies each year between 1988 and 1993, or a total of 224,733 new voters for the five year period 1988 to 1993. But this  number does not take into account the annual death rate is 37 out of every 1000 people or roughly 17,979 deaths per year or 89,893 deaths over five years between the two election cycles 2006 and 2011. But if the approximate 89,893 deaths since the 2006 election is deducted from 224,773 additional new voters born between 1988 and 1993, it would leave a total of 134,880 new voters to be eligible for this year’s elections. But this number too does not take into account, the number of Gambians of voting age who live outside the country, or who for whatever reason choose not to register, which can be very conservatively estimate 50,000.  It finally comes down to 134,880 and 50,000 voters or 184,880 new registered voters who are either minors or non Gambian nationals.

1. IEC’s 2011 registered voters – 869,000
          2006 registered voters –     670,000
   Difference ———————–199,000 new voters in 2011

2. Gambia population 2011———————————————1,797, 860 people
     2.5% annual birth rate 1988-1993; 93995/year———————-224,773 five years

3. 37 out of every 1000 deaths/ year=17,979/5 years 1988/93———-89,893 deaths

4. Births 1988/1993 were 224,773 less the deaths for the same period 89, 893, which equals134, 880 new voters. But the IEC registered 199,000 additional new voters instead of 134,880. The difference is 65,120 new voters who are minors and non citizens, and therefore ineligible to vote. But if we factor in other variables the ineligible voters will be between 65,120 to 100,000 voters. What this boils down to is that the IEC registered between 65,120 to 100,000 who are non-eligible either by age or nationality. The IEC must sort out this mess; otherwise it will make a mockery of the entire electoral process.

18 July 2011

The Gambia: Why the opposition ought to boycott November elections; unless……

By Mathew K Jallow
The opposition parties have ten days in which to mount the campaign of a life time. Yahya Jammeh has embarked on a de-facto two-week whirlwind campaign tour. The November 2011 elections are just round the corner. And IEC's voter registration of 869,000 is out of sync with the theory of possibility. This preamble is the preface of the upcoming elections. And as the election date draws closer and a cloud of doubt hangs over the voter registration numbers, the angst and discomfort among Gambia's voting population at home and abroad is palpable.
At the core of this disquiet is the possible registration of Gambian minors and non-citizens from Senegal, Casamance, Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone and Mauritania to name just a few. To a doubting public, the election results have already been predetermined by the fraudulent maneuvering of IEC; a move designed to advantage the regime. And as of now, no party except Yahya Jammeh and his Armed Forces Provisional Ruling Council (AFPRC) appear ready for an election, which calls into question the credibility of the electoral process before it even begins. So far, what has transpired or is ongoing, suggests that the opposition is being duped, outflanked and taken for fools by both the IEC and Yahya Jammeh and his regime.

To begin, the general public was taken by surprise when both UDP party leader Ousainou Darboe and PDOIS's Halifa Sallah absolved Yahya Jammeh of culpability for undertaking the "Meet the People" tour at this particular time, even quoting a Constitutional requirement that empower Yahya Jammeh to embark on this de-factor campaign tour. And equally surprising, their admonition of Yahya Jammeh against campaigning on the tour was ridiculously lame and laughable for the simple reason that Yahya Jammeh is not bound by our laws and Constitution and certainly does not play by the rules. Additionally, the anomaly in the voter registration process is sufficiently serious to warrant a united opposition dialogue for the purpose of boycotting the elections. It is out of fear of this possible eventuality that the IEC has extended an invitation for a public review of its voter register. But the move is only a smokescreen intended to make voters feel confident that the daring invitation somehow demonstrates the preclusion of fraud in the voter registration process.

With only four months to left before the first ballots are cast, it is clear that this election too will be a repetition of the past three election cycles, when the acute imbalance in access to resources put the opposition at a chronic disadvantage. More seriously still, this is a script that the regime has perfected over time for the purpose of denying the opposition an opportunity to ever prevail in an election. For anyone bewildered by the huge Yahya Jammeh posters infecting our cities, towns and countryside, and who believe that Yahya Jammeh's regime is a dictatorship, also knows from empirical evidence that dictatorships never lose elections. With this in mind, Gambians will be in denial and deluding ourselves if we foolishly, and against our better judgments, latch onto the false believe that the opposition can remove Yahya Jammeh from power under the guise of an election.
Given the prevailing hostile political climate the opposition is operating under and the gaping imbalance in the access and availability of resources between the regime and the opposition, the likelihood that the opposition can pull out a victory from the jaws of the beast are at best slim and at worst impossible. The logical conclusion to be drawn, given these circumstances, is that the elections will not be free and fair, and this is grounds for the opposition to coalesce around the theme of boycotting elections to avoid legitimizing Yahya Jammeh's criminal regime for yet one more term. Boycotting the elections will in some quarters be viewed as an extreme measure, but the alternative of legitimizing Yahya Jammeh and his regime, given the history of murders, summary executions, tortures, forced disappearances of citizens and the underlying turmoil festering within the country is far worst. If the opposition cares about the plight of the Gambian people, which there is no doubt they do, there are ten reasons why consideration for boycotting the election should be discussed with the urgency and seriousness it deserves. The real physical lives of people are a stake as Yahya Jammeh's tenure at the helm of our government means a continuation of the murders, the executions, the tortures, the forced disappearances of citizens, not to mention the continued incarcerations among a host of other tyrannical forms of governance. The opposition should make certain demands as a precondition to participating in the November 2011 elections. These include;
1. Demand an extension of the campaign period from ten days to two/three months
2. Demand opposition have equal access to Gambia Radio and Television Services
3. Prohibit public employees, divisional commissioners, chiefs, military, police, and teachers campaigning for the Armed Forces Provisional Ruling Council party 
4. End the use of government resources; vehicles, building facilities and finances in campaigning for the regime
5. Stop hounding the opposition with agents and spies who monitor their activities
6. Demand the removal of any imposed restriction and barrier to the opposition's effectiveness
7. Demand that opposition supporter be protected from the regime's hooligans
8. Demand the strict neutrality of all security forces
9. Demand that a robust force of international election monitors be allowed to watch the election process
10. Demand the complete independence of the Independent Electoral Commission or that the Electoral Commissioner comprise representatives nominated from the different political parties
Unless all these demands are met, the opposition should seriously consider boycotting the elections. The fairness of the elections is already in doubt and no amount of gimmicks and trickery will temper the public's perception. The opposition is disadvantaged in a way and to a level that will make the elections a mockery of the tenets of electoral democracy and the rule of law. The opposition should not allow to be used to legitimize the Jammeh regime by participating and an election that is unfavorably skewed and which they have no chance of winning. The time to cut their losses and maintain their dignity in the eyes of the Gambian people is now. BOYCOTT THE NOVEMBER 2011 ELECTIONS UNLESS THE TEN CONDITIONS ABOVE ARE MET.
Also coming soon: 
The Gambia: The paradoxical oxymoron; peace and stability and the underlying turmoil and national insecurity: a special July 22 anniversary edition

15 July 2011

Gambia News: Sidia Blames Gambia’s Failure on Lawmakers Says they Failed the Nation

(Dailynews)A veteran Gambian politician and National Assembly member for Wuli West constituency, Sidia Jatta on Sunday, July 10, 2011 blamed Gambia’s failure on the National Assembly of The Gambia, saying that parliamentarians have failed the nation.
Jatta who described some of the assembly members as sycophants and rubberstamps Said: “National Assembly members are responsible for the stagnation of progress of this country.
Sidia was speaking at a mass political rally held at Nusrat Junction in Bundung organised by People’s Democratic Organisation for independence and Socialism (PDOIS).
“There are National Assembly members who do not even contribute during debates in the House as lawmakers who should scrutinise every bill before adoption,” he said at his party’s former stronghold.
He said the meeting is a non-partisan meeting but a consultation to salvage The Gambia from bad governance.
According to him, the extravagant life of the ruling APRC government surpasses that of the former PPP government.
“The current government has chided the former regime for all sorts of financial indiscipline but the current president is receiving D52, 000 as monthly salary, which has tripled the salary of a medical doctor,” he said.
“Imagine a medical doctor who would try to be alert up to odd hours in the night for any emergency that requires quick response.”
The veteran politician and the longest serving opposition parliamentarian in the administration of the APRC said leadership is not a position of privilege, but of sacrifice to serve the common and legitimate interest of the nation.
On the coalition
Sidia said the voter apathy of the 2006 presidential election was attributed to failure of various opposition parties to remain united under NADD.
In order to avert the trend, he said Agenda 2011 is formulated as a programme that gives opportunity to the people to choose a leader for the most talked about opposition alliance for the forthcoming presidential election.
“To have a standard bearer who would be the presidential candidate of the alliance, he or she must be the choice of the people so as to effect the desired change of government and system,” Jatta noted.
Author: Baboucarr Ceesay

07 July 2011

Gambia: Jammeh must disclose knowledge of Manneh's fate



Gambian Press Union
Gambian Press Union
New York, July 6, 2011--Gambian President Yahya Jammeh must clarify his March 16 comments suggesting that detained journalist "Chief" Ebrima Manneh has died, the Committee to Protect Journalists said today. CPJ's call comes ahead of the fifth anniversary of the July 7, 2006, arrest of Manneh, left, who disappeared after being taken into government custody.
Gambian National Police spokesman Yorro Mballow told CPJ today that police have no information about Manneh, whose arrest by plainclothes agents of the National Intelligence Agency in the newsroom of the pro-government Daily Observer was witnessed by several colleagues. Despite a handful of reported sightings of Manneh in government custody, and a rulingby the Court of Justice of the Economic Community of West African States calling forManneh's release, the Jammeh administration has typically denied knowledge of the case.
On March 16, however, in public remarks during a meeting with representatives of the Gambian media, Jammeh suggested he had knowledge of Manneh's fate. "Let me make it very clear that the government has nothing to do with the death of Chief Manneh," he said. An unnamed police source quoted by Agence France-Presse in 2009 also suggested Manneh had died in prison.
 "The official silence on this case is cynically cruel," said Mohamed Keita, CPJ's Africa advocacy coordinator. "President Jammeh owes the Manneh family an explanation."

Source: cpj.org

05 July 2011

The Gambia: Selective amnesia or intellectual quandary

By Mathew K Jallow

His decision to challenge the status quo was a courageous act of political defiance; if not a daring assault on sixteen years of state impunity and uncaring nonchalance. Still, Dr. Amadou Scattred Janneh was under no illusion about the fortified wall of resistance that loomed menacingly ahead of his aspirations for our country. But the paradigm shifts evolving from Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere in North Africa and the Middle East have provided Gambians with a blueprint, an impetus and the moral obligation to take back control of our country from a regime that continues to abuse and manifest its deadly contempt for our people.

After a long hiatus from reality, Gambians can no longer continue the unsustainable paradox of luxuriating in political amnesia, as the country continues its degeneration into a morass of economic blight and social disintegration. While a hopeless sense of collective apathy and defeatism have permeated every aspect of our lives and made it difficult to extricate our country from the overpowering political quandary that has devalued our self-esteem and bankrupted our sense of moral rectitude, much of the blame for our subjectivity rests on our collective puerile naivety and callous indifference towards our country and to each other.

With The Gambia held captive in a vortex of social, economic and political degeneration, the pathway to our political liberty rests on a determination that values our and our posterity’s humanity and self worth. Still, as the banality of our paralyzing fear of Yahya Jammeh’s absolute power continues to hamper our ability to rationalize our national interests, our degeneration into lawlessness and anarchy is increasingly exemplified by an emerging national psyche that is devoid of empathy. Our duty to ourselves, our children and future generations must remain the cornerstone that inspires and motivates us to stand our ground against the ruthless machinations of a regime that is both arrogantly numbed to reason and calculatingly self-contradictory in its use and exercise of state power and authority. But the predilection to take Yahya Jammeh’s gross abuses lying down, has predictably worsened our chances of freeing ourselves from political bondage, prompting Professor Dr. Amadou Scattred Janneh to deliver lectures that radiated the need and ideality of freedom and liberty for our downtrodden people. But increasingly too, the international community is focusing attention on Yahya Jammeh’s cruel dictatorship, and needless to say, sooner or later, his sadistic disregard for human life and morbid obsession with absolute power, will be his own undoing. But nothing in recent memory has perplexed Gambians and the international community as the arrest and detention of Dr. Amadou Scattred Janneh, whose brush with the regime showcases Yahya Jammeh’s regime’s lethargy to freedom of speech, and more so still, its freefall into a pariah nation.

But Dr. Janneh’s arrest and continued detention have exposed, most notoriously in the blogosphere, a new dimension of the cruel underbelly of the Gambian society, where the abominable contortion of facts over the past three weeks is disgustingly surreal and sickeningly mischievous. The Ad hominem attacks on Dr. Janneh for his service under Yahya Jammeh’s regime, so pitifully devoid of sober judgment, says more about the superficial sanctimoniousness and provincial mentality of his nemesis than of Dr. Janneh. The viciousness and ham-handed approach with which Dr. Janneh’s arrest and detention were received by a scornfully misguided few, will never stain the integrity of an honorable man who decided to stand tall, so we all may follow his example out of the dungeon of political servitude; if anything, it will backfire miserably on those whose dark motives and off the wall comments are typically spawned by mean-spiritedness and lack of objective rationality. For a man who dared to do what most of us can only think, Dr. Janneh sits in prison, the victim of the dithering stupidity of a paranoid regime easily agitated into unnecessary acts of revenge and vengeance against perceived threats to its existence. Any malicious efforts to aggregate the pain of Dr. Janneh’s unnecessary incarceration by a regime that has proven time and again, that it lacks the legitimacy and the credibility under the eyes of the plurality of Gambians, will fail hands-down. The parochial mentality exhibited by a handful of Gambians in Dr. Janneh’s arrest and detention, even while the vast majority of Gambians and the international community are rallying behind the only man who had the fortitude and the guts to represent what every Gambian only dared think, is under-whelming to say the least.

And, equally important, Yahya Jammeh’s political subterfuge designed to mask the reality of his less than noble intentions, has become an all too familiar fact of life in The Gambia. But as Dr. Janneh and his codefendant’s sagas, which are the latest in the never-ending stream of arrests and detentions of innocent Gambians shows, Yahya Jammeh will stop at nothing in his attempts to silence voices that have worldviews contrary to his. And Dr. Janneh, by dint of his outspokenness about the restoration of democracy in a country wallowing in political misery, has become only the latest victim of a regime that is maddeningly intolerant to even the most innocuous political dissent. This is the daunting issue facing Gambians; an issue so critical to our freedom and liberty, and so challenging to our sensibilities, as to wake us up from the selective amnesia and intellectual quandary that has corrupted our rationality. Together, we must rally around the common interest of our people, rather than be drawn into the dangerous depths of our narrow, self-serving prejudices. 

For like it or not, Dr. Amadou Scattred Janneh has become the first real symbol of resistance to the dictatorship in our country; the Lui Xiaobo of The Gambia, if you will. The non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in The Gambia has the undivided attention of the international community and Gambians should never rest until the murders, disappearances, tortures, intimidations and mind-numbing plunder of our wealth and national resources ends, and The Gambia can once again join the community of free, democratic nations of the world. Gambians must commit to nothing less than a country that is free of tyranny; a country where the values of caring, sharing and empathy, which we hold so dear to our hearts, are once again  restored in our lives.